No one believes Iggy on coalition issue: Poll

By DAVID AKIN, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF

OTTAWA - Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff tried to be as clear as he could on Sunday.

"We're ruling out a coalition," Ignatieff told reporters in Montreal.

And yet, according to an exclusive new poll commissioned by QMI Agency, most Canadians - including his own supporters - simply don't believe him.

Leger Marketing surveyed 1,119 Canadians Saturday and Sunday and asked, among other things, if they believe Ignatieff when he says he's "ruling out a coaliton." Only 17% of those surveyed were prepared to take him at his word.

And even among those who identified themselves as Liberal voters, 35% do not believe their leader's claim while just 32% do believe him. Nearly half of all NDP supporters, two-thirds of BQ supporters and 86% of Tory supporters aren't buying what Iggy's selling when it comes to the coalition.

The good news for Ignatieff - and, perhaps, bad news for the Conservatives - is that the coalition issue is not a top issue with most Canadians and is not, at this point, moving votes to any one party.

"The coalition does not really shake the electorate when it comes to who they support," Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing said. "If the election were held today, it would have limited effect.

"But over 35 days, would it wear down a leader? It would probably be Ignatieff that would be hurt on his leadership."

Bourque says Ignatieff's challenge when it comes to issues of leadership were evident when his firm asked who would make the best leader of a coalition government involving Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.

Canadians narrowly picked NDP Leader Jack Layton at 27% over Ignatieff at 24%. Bourque said a significant number of those who identified themselves as Liberals were among those who preferred Layton to lead a coalition.

Leger says its poll is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Leger also found that all this coalition talk is the real deal. Nearly half - 46% - of those surveyed believe a coalition government is a genuine Possibility, while one in four believe it to be little more than fear-mongering by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Still, a significant majority of Liberal, NDP and BQ voters support the idea of a coalition government in which MPs from those parties are participants.

Leger found that, among those who identify themselves as Liberal supporters, two-thirds "approved" of a Liberal-NDP-BQ coalition. It was the same with the NDP, with two-thirds of that party's supporters giving such a coalition the thumbs up.

Conservative voters are nearly unanimous - 95% - in thinking that a coalition is a terrible idea.

Moreover, the coalition idea is much more popular in Quebec than it is in the rest of Canada.

"There is only region of Canada where we get majority approval for coalition, in Quebec and that's at 52%. All other regions are in the high 20s and the mid-30s," said Bourque.

And yet, according to an exclusive new poll commissioned by QMI Agency, most Canadians - including his own supporters - simply don't believe him.