By Winnipeg Sun
While encouraging to Manitoba’s Conservatives, the results of a recent Angus Reid poll that says the Tories are gaining ground on the governing NDP should be taken with a grain of salt.
It’s not at all surprising for a government that’s been in power for over a decade and who just lost a very popular leader.And the Conservative brain trust needs to be reminded of an important fact: The numbers reflect dissatisfaction with the NDP not overwhelming support for your party.
Add to that the ongoing messes and bungles in the child welfare, justice and health portfolios (all these before the Brian Sinclair inquest) and the numbers make plenty of sense right now.
It’s the classic “fed up with the current bunch” scenario so don’t chill the vintage Conservative champagne just yet.
You’re a so-so opposition party benefitting (sic) because the current crop is constantly screwing up. Enjoy it because things may look a lot different by October 2011. These numbers have no relevance whatsoever since the next election is still more than 15 months away.
Yet Conservative strategists should pick up on the subliminal message the poll numbers deliver.
Throw a menu of traditional Conservative policies — low taxes, responsible spending, less bureaucrats — into this equation and you have a potent recipe to defeat the NDP come election time. If you can grow your support by just holding their feet to the fire imagine how far you can go with a strong plan for Manitoba.
The Tories should get cracking on telling voters just how they would govern the province should they get elected in 2011 — something they’ve failed to do so far. Don’t wait for the campaign, frankly it’s already started for the party.
The Conservatives’ constant hammering of the NDP on the mess in Manitoba’s child welfare system while at the same time offering a policy plank — a freezing of transfers of children from stable foster homes — is good to see.
You can’t just be against something. You also need to stand for something.
One significant number in this latest poll is the Conservatives appear to be neck and neck with the NDP in vote-rich Winnipeg; this is a substantial piece of good news.
The overall results give a spark of hope as well.
Angus Reid surveyed 800 Manitobans during the last week of May and 48% of them say they would vote for the Tories in a provincial election were held today. NDP support was at 36%, Liberal support at 12% and Green Party support at 3%.
Manitoba needs a change of government.
The Conservatives are the only party who can do it. They need to use these results to start selling a vision to Manitobans.
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