Manitoba Economic Outlook 2009-10

Four Canadian provinces to buck recession -report

Thu Mar 5, 2009 12:51pm EST

TORONTO, March 5 (Reuters) - Only four of Canada's 10 provinces will record economic growth this year, while a steep slowdown in the United States will hamper overall expansion, the Conference Board of Canada said in its winter economic forecast on Thursday.
The board stressed that no province will spared from the impact of the U.S. economic slowdown, given that Canada and the United States shares the world's largest trading partnership. However, two western and two eastern provinces will manage to grow this year, though not without difficulty.

In the Prairies, Manitoba and Saskatchewan have economies that are strongly reliant on agriculture, and this is expected to help carry them forward this year. Manitoba is expected to grow 1 percent in 2009, while Saskatchewan may lead all provinces with a 1.6 percent advance.

On the East Coast, New Brunswick is expected to stave off recession with 0.2 percent growth on the back of announced income tax cuts and infrastructure spending, while Prince Edward Island has major capital projects in the works that could push its economy up 0.6 percent, the board said.

"No province is immune to the effects of the global recession," said Pedro Antunes, the Conference Board's director of the national and provincial economic forecast.
Canada's economy has deteriorated sharply since the board's autumn report. Gross domestic product, one of the most recent pieces of domestic data, showed the economy shrank more in the fourth quarter of 2008 than at any time since 1991.
The deteriorating U.S. economy will have a heavy impact on Canada, which shares a trading link worth more than $1.5 billion a day with its larger neighbor.

Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada's easternmost province, is set to have the worst performing provincial economy due to the impact of declining offshore oil output. It will shrink by an estimated 2.6 percent, the Conference Board said.
Ontario, the manufacturing center of the country, will struggle because of weakness in the auto sector. The manufacturing woes will likely hurt Quebec's growth as well.
Alberta's economy, heavily dependent on the energy industry, is forecast to weaken as oil prices continue to slide and expensive oil sands projects are shelved.

Overall, the Canadian economy will contract 0.9 percent this year, revised from an autumn forecast when the board expected GDP growth to be 2.2 percent in 2009.
The Conference Board expects the Canadian economy will recover in 2010, expanding 3.6 percent. All provinces will also swing to growth as the U.S. economy rebounds. (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Rob Wilson)

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN0532960920090305

Recession? What recession? Manitoba seeing steady growth, jobs, retail sales



By Chinta Puxley, The Canadian Press

WINNIPEG - One might forgive Manitobans if they seem slightly smug these days.
With job losses in Ontario, falling house prices in Vancouver and disappointing retail sales across the country, Manitoba seems to be bucking the recession with its "steady-as-she-goes" incremental growth.

The province's unemployment rate in February was at 4.8 per cent - three percentage points below the national numbers and the second-lowest rate in the country, surpassed only by Saskatchewan. While retail sales fell more than five per cent across Canada in December, they only dropped half a percentage point in Manitoba. And as shops close in other parts of the country, Manitoba is actually seeing new stores move in; from its first sprawling Ikea store which will anchor a $400-million retail development to the opening of its first Sephora beauty store.

The housing market has dipped slightly, but about one-third of Winnipeg's homes are still selling for at or above asking price. Because of its "even keel" economy, the Conference Board of Canada recently found Manitoba is one of only four provinces expected to experience economic growth this year. The "momentum" generated in the past few years will carry it forward into 2010, the board said.

That momentum hasn't been anywhere as dizzying as it has in other provinces. But many say that's why Manitoba is poised to weather this recession better than most - it never climbed to the same heights and therefore doesn't have as far to fall. "We feel we're holding our own and steady as she goes," said Premier Gary Doer, whose NDP government is tabling its budget March 25. "We don't like to have our economy lurch forward and lurch backward. We want to keep going in a steady way. Manitoba relies more on what's in our heads - our brains - than we rely on what's in the ground."

The province isn't as dependent on the auto sector and its manufacturers are faring better than those in neighbouring Ontario, said Marie-Christine Bernard with the Conference Board of Canada. Major hydro construction projects are going ahead and there is a backlog of orders in the aerospace and transit industries, which should keep Manitoba humming for the coming year, she said.

"The domestic economy in Manitoba is in pretty good shape," said Bernard, associate director of provincial economic trends at the Conference Board of Canada. "We're forecasting some job growth for 2009, contrary to most of the provinces, where they will see job losses." Since Manitobans seem to be holding on to their jobs, they also haven't cut down as heavily on their spending. That makes the province an attractive place for retailers looking to expand, said Lanny McInnes with the Retail Council of Canada.

"While we don't have the peaks that other provinces may have - like Saskatchewan and Alberta - we also don't have the correspondent valleys when other provinces are running into difficulty," he said. "Manitobans are still going to be shopping so (retailers) look at the province in times like this as an area where they can grow their business." The province has also seen an influx of people moving to Manitoba, keeping the demand for housing steady.

Jeff Powell, senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing, said Manitoba never saw the same speculative buying as other provinces, which protected it from the drop other cities are now experiencing. As employment remains steady, so too does the demand for housing, he said. "The forecast for prices in Manitoba is really quite stable," he said. But despite the relatively sunny forecasts, Doer said Manitoba can't afford to get comfortable.

The world is in a recession and Manitoba isn't immune, he said. "There are challenges because Manitoba is in the centre of the country. We trade east of us, west of us, south of us and north of us through the port of Churchill," Doer said. "Canada is relatively better off than the United States. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are doing relatively better than other provinces. But it's still lower than it was a year ago."


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That's what I like to hear!

Sounds like IKEA has opened! Why wasn't I invited??
Have any of you been thier? lol

can you make the sarcasm font a button maybe replace the Italic one?

It's not italic. It is comic san something...

yeah.. so force the italic button to go to that instead

Italic button? Whatsamattaforyou, uh?

Pas fungoo?

Manitoba Market Up, despite troubled economy-
January sales volume down 10% but average sale price up 6% for a net loss in volume of 4%.
The important thing is your house has increased in value 6% since last year.
Damn good for us homeowners!
Mortgages are as low as 2.49% , advertised by the Cambrian Credit union.

Manitoba had the lowest rate of unemployment in the country last month, according to statistics released today.

The province's unemployment rate for April was 4.6%, well below the national average of 8% and tops in Canada.

Rates in other provinces ranged from 5% in Saskatchewan and 6% in Alberta to 12.4% in PEI and 14.7% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The stats also show that Manitoba gained 500 jobs since March, but was down almost 7,000 jobs compared with April 2008. Both those trends are in keeping with the rest of Canada.

Manitoba continues to gain full-time jobs though. Over the past several months, full-time jobs have been increasing in the province. There were 497,400 full-time jobs in Manitoba in April, compared with 495,400 in March and 490,900 in April 2008.

Manitoba lost 1,500 part-time jobs in April, and has lost more than 13,000 over the past year.
Winnipeg Sun

Sad part is we are carrying alot of debt for the crap Doer has built or made .

Pavolo wrote:Sad part is we are carrying alot of debt for the crap Doer has built or made .

That's a luxury problem compared to what almost everyone else is experiencing. What matters is maintaining high employment and relatively stable housing costs for the next 2-3 years, which even seems realistic. The debt can wait.

Then again, I'm Icelandic, I should know better than to talk about debt as if I know squat.

But your point is well made. The most Manitobans can hope for while the recession plays itself out is stability. That is a very good thing and so far it seems we are on that track.

grumpy old man wrote:But your point is well made. The most Manitobans can hope for while the recession plays itself out is stability. That is a very good thing and so far it seems we are on that track.

I hereby propose our first banned moderator.. for comments suggesting that Evil Doer is perhaps not evil

Nah. Bite your tongue.

I've always maintained that if the province was performing reasonably well under Evil Doer imagine how much better it would be doing under a real government...

Ha ha...'real government'...couldn't agree more.

He is still ringing up a hell of a debt and it will come due .