WINNIPEG - A new report Wednesday from Statistics Canada states the number of senior citizens in Canada could more than double by 2036 but that the province of Manitoba would have the youngest average population.
The report includes projected growth in the areas of population and age across Canada and by province.
All growth scenarios were considered in the projections including two major factors of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net internal migration (immigrants minus emigrants).
Overall, the report states Canada’s population could exceed 40 million by 2036 and the number of senior citizens could more than double.In projected low-growth scenarios at the provincial level, Manitoba would rank fifth in Canada with its population increasing from 1.2 million in 2009 to 1.4 million in 2036.
From 2009 to 2036, Canada’s population could grow from 33.7 million to between 40.1 million and 47.7 million with the number of seniors outnumbering the children for the first time.
The report states Canada’s population is projected to age rapidly until 2031 by which time entire baby boom generation will have turned 65. The overall population is projected to continue aging after 2031 but at a less rapid pace.Under a medium growth scenario, projections show Manitoba would be the youngest province in average age of its population by 2036 with Newfoundland and Labrador the oldest.
Projections are that seniors would account for 23-25 per cent of the total population by 2036 which is nearly double the 13.9 per cent in 2009. Under these projections, Canada would have far more elderly people. In 2009, there are about 1.3 million people aged 80 and over. Under a medium-growth scenario, that number could increase to 3.3 million by 2036.
At the same time, the working-age population aged 15-64 would decline steadily from about 70 per cent to about 60 per cent.
Provincial and territorial projections show Ontario and B.C. as the only provinces whose average annual growth would be higher than the growth rate for Canada.
Stats Canada notes the new population projections are an attempt to establish plausible long-term scenarios based on expectations of fertility, life expectancy and migration with July 1, 2009 as a starting point. The projections are not forecasts, which tell what the most likely future will be.Population aging would be expected to differ from region to region but Manitoba, along with Ontario and Alberta, would have a lower median age than the national level.
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