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the winnipeg sandbox » winnipeg sandbox.. » questions & answers... » do statistics professor actually know statistics?

do statistics professor actually know statistics?

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Deank

Deank
contributor eminence
contributor eminence

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/lineups-likely-as-canadians-dream-of-winning-41-million-in-lotto-6-49-draw-88558267.html

"Kiriliuk puts the odds of winning Saturday's prize at about one in 14 million.

To put that in perspective, University of Toronto statistics professor Jeffrey Rosenthal says if you chose someone at random the chances are about four times as likely they will one day be prime minister of Canada as it is that you will win Saturday."


I would love to see that little tidbit proven. I dont think I can twist the math to make that work.

umcrouc0

umcrouc0
contributor plus
contributor plus

The key thing in there is chosing someone completely at random. There's a probability that your random selection would be someone who will be PM one day based on the population of Canada and how many PMs there are within someone's eligable lifetime. Based on the story I guess that probability is around 1 in 3.5 million that you'd randomly select someone who would be PM one day.

cherenkov

cherenkov
contributor plus
contributor plus

1 in 3.5 million chance of being Prime Minister? Let's say your potential PM age-range is 45-75, so thirty years. Let's suppose there is on average a new PM every 5 years. There would be about 6 PMs during that time. With a pop of 36 million, that would be a 1 in 6 million chance.

It's a stupid comparison because there are many variables that are constantly changing. Maybe based on historical data 1 in 3.5 m would be accurate, but in no way does that apply to the future.

http://anybody-want-a-peanut.blogspot.com/

FlyingRat

FlyingRat
moderator
moderator

You need to take into account all the Joe-Who? P.M.s who only spend a few months as P.M. That would bump up the number of PMs during that reference period... ;-)

umcrouc0

umcrouc0
contributor plus
contributor plus

There'd have to be some factors in there for age demographics and stuff (i.e.: what are the chances of picking someone who's too old to be PM or who still has all their years of eligabilty, etc?). Then there would be some percentage of the population who isn't eligable to be PM for other reasons. Would be a bit of a mess to work out, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was either higher or lower than what most people expect. Like if the population is 36 million, only a percentage of that is going to be eligable to be PM during each person's eligable years so your straight chances during that time are actually a lot better. Anyway, 1 in 3.5 M doesn't seem too crazy.

cherenkov

cherenkov
contributor plus
contributor plus

You need to take into account all the Joe-Who? P.M.s who only spend a
few months as P.M. That would bump up the number of PMs during that
reference period... ;-)

That is true (hello Kim Campbell) but there are also the guys who stick around for multiple terms. Average is probably more like 3-4 years. In any case ... silly analogy by the prof.

http://anybody-want-a-peanut.blogspot.com/

FlyingRat

FlyingRat
moderator
moderator

all this to say snowball's chance in a Winnipeg July. Smile

Deank

Deank
contributor eminence
contributor eminence

uhh.. we actually had snow in July in Winnipeg a few years back

which of course means I am winning the lottery this weekend.

Guest

Anonymous
Guest

My name is on the cheque do statistics professor actually know statistics? Lol

Deank

Deank
contributor eminence
contributor eminence

When I win the lottery..
dignity is on me friends, dignity is one me

Guest

Anonymous
Guest

Are the drinks too

FlyingRat

FlyingRat
moderator
moderator

Deank wrote:uhh.. we actually had snow in July in Winnipeg a few years back


Yeah, that's part of the joke. Obviously somebody will win the lottery - although the occurrence of snow in July in Winnipeg is probably higher than the odds of winning the lottery!

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